Tag Archives: power rankings

AFL Power Rankings, Week 17

Hey, only one week to go in the season, assuming the league doesn’t change the rules again this week! Arizona annihilated the Gladiators, launching them beyond the Soul into the top spot as they wrapped up their regular season.

Tampa Bay’s victory over the Steel also vaulted them into a tie for last place with one game left for each squad. No worries for either team, as each will have its season ended in the first round of the playoffs.

Here’s this week’s Power Rankings:

  1. Arizona (1.17)
  2. Philadelphia (1.15)
  3. Orlando (1.07)
  4. Jacksonville (1.06)
  5. LA (1.05)
  6. Cleveland (0.92)
  7. Tampa Bay (0.80)
  8. Portland (0.80)

Continue reading AFL Power Rankings, Week 17

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AFL Power Rankings, Week 16

As I predicted, my prediction record took a hit last weekend as Portland continued its three-year streak of getting a win over Jacksonville and LA holding on to defeat Cleveland. I’m down to a mere 10-2 record (11-2 if you count my predicting that I would lose games!) on the season.

My bad week reminds me a bit of Orlando’s week. First, they went from “driving to take the lead” to “down three touchdowns” in a couple of minutes of gameplay against the Rattlers. Since they clinched a tiebreaker advantage over Arizona by losing by less than 18 points, their late field goal to cut the final margin to 17 seemed like a great save.

Then the league decided to change the postseason rules (with one game left in the season for each team) so Orlando and Philadelphia are set to play each other in the second playoff round regardless of what happens – the saving grace was rendered largely moot.

And, to top things off, LA leaped over them into third place in this week’s weighted power rankings. Here they are: Continue reading AFL Power Rankings, Week 16

AFL Power Rankings, Week 15

Before I start, I’d like to tout my 8-0 record in picking games so far, since it’s not often I have this kind of prognostication prowess, and I’d like to do it before I lose a game.

Now that that’s done, here are some fun facts about Week 14 and the Arena Football League season so far:

  • Philadelphia had the first 100% successful offensive week since Jacksonville’s Week 8 win. (Orlando is the only other team to have turned in a 100% week, having done so three times.)
  • The league’s best offense (by success rate – surrender rate) can be found in the desert, with the Rattlers (80.5%) eking out the Predators (80.3%) and “whoever plays the Steel” (80.2%).
  • The league’s best defense is still “whoever plays the Storm” with a 60.3% success rate. “Whoever plays the Steel” is No. 2 at 56.9%, and the Soul round out the Top 3 at 45.8%.
  • Defensive touchdowns – your team either scores ’em a lot or they don’t. Arizona has 11, Cleveland has nine, and Philadelphia has eight…but no one else has more than four. Tampa Bay still hasn’t scored a defensive touchdown in 2016.
  • On offense, there are three tiers: Portland and Tampa Bay’s offenses have given up 11 touchdowns each, and Arizona (0), Jacksonville (1), and Orlando (1) have surrendered just two combined. The remaining three teams have between 4-6 surrendered TDs.
  • Tampa Bay converted nearly 72 percent of offensive possessions into touchdowns in weeks 7-9, culminating in their win against the Rattlers. Aside from those three weeks, the Storm offense has been stopped more often than it’s scored in every game.
  • Why do I weight the rankings? If I didn’t, the last time a team passed another team (aside from LA and Cleveland dancing around the middle) would have been Week 4. Boorrrrrrrring!

Continue reading AFL Power Rankings, Week 15

AFL Power Rankings, Homestretch Edition

I hope everyone enjoyed their extended holiday weekend, despite it being bereft of football. The break gives us a nice reset point for the season, however, as we head into the final few weeks and jockey for playoff positioning.

Here are the Power Rankings as we get back into action:

  1. Philadelphia (1.18)
  2. Arizona (1.13)
  3. Orlando (1.09)
  4. Jacksonville (1.05)
  5. Cleveland (1.04)
  6. LA (1.00)
  7. Portland (0.75)
  8. Tampa Bay (0.74)

Jacksonville is a funny team – they have a better success rate than Cleveland. They’ve outscored their opponents. They have the top-ranked passer in the league and the leaders in passing yards, receiving yards, and rushing yards. Tommy Grady has thrown the fewest INTs of any quarterback who has played a significant length of time this season. And yet they’ve still managed just a 5-7 record, with five of those losses coming at home. They’re the Dream Team 2011 Philadelphia Eagles.

In other news, 17 of the league’s 50 games have ended as one-possession games. Here are the teams ranked by their success in one-possession games:

  1. Philadelphia (2-0)
  2. Orlando (6-2)
  3. Cleveland (4-2)
  4. Arizona (1-2)
  5. Los Angeles (1-2)
  6. Jacksonville (2-4)
  7. Tampa Bay (1-3)
  8. Portland (0-2)

You’d like to say Orlando’s lucky to win so many close games, but the flip side of the record is that the Predators are the only team in the league not to have lost a game by more than one possession. Philadelphia, although they’ve won two games, both against the other two top-tier teams, has been beaten convincingly three times.

So who wins this week?

Cleveland at Philadelphia: Technically, Philadelphia won’t host any of the three Glads/Soul matchups this season, as this game will take place in Allentown. These teams love scoring defensive touchdowns against one another. Each team has scored on three interception returns against the other in two games thus far. The problem for Philadelphia is that they got all of theirs off of Chris Dieker in the opener. They haven’t intercepted Arvell Nelson in just over a game’s worth of action. The Soul are still the best team in the league, statistically, and they’ve won all their traveling “home” games, so I’ll pick them this week.

Jacksonville at Arizona: Jacksonville has the talent to beat Arizona, and it’s actually fortunate for them that this game is being played on the road, because they suck at home. I’ll still pick them to lose, because Arizona is a better team.

Orlando at Portland: Chalk up another win for the Predators, who will need it as they play the other two contenders for the top seed in the last two games of the season.

Tampa Bay at Los Angeles: Is there a quarterback controversy in Anaheim? Starter Nathan Stanley is back and healthy, but Pete Thomas has played just as well as Stanley in his stead. The Storm would actually have a pretty good chance at a win if they weren’t, well, the Storm. KISS win.

AFL Power Rankings, Week 11

I don’t have enough fun and interesting facts for a full post, so here are a few to tide you over until next week.

  • Until Week 10, no team had surrendered a safety all season. The LA KISS have now given up two in two weeks (no one else has surrendered one).
  • Jacksonville’s three defensive TDs against Tampa Bay exceeded their non-offensive output for the rest of the season combined (they had one defensive TD and one special teams TD).
  • Tampa Bay reached 10 touchdowns surrendered first, getting all the way up to 11 in just 10 games. Yes, opposing defenses average more than a touchdown per game against the Storm.

Here are your power rankings:

  1. Philadelphia (1.21)
  2. Arizona (1.12)
  3. Jacksonville (1.10)
  4. Orlando (1.02)
  5. Cleveland (0.99)
  6. Los Angeles (0.93)
  7. Tampa Bay (0.81)
  8. Portland (0.78)

Jacksonville improved their ranking by annihilating Tampa Bay. Portland couldn’t capitalize on the Storm’s poor performance, losing by a lot to Arizona. Orlando and Cleveland’s dead-even battle resulted in almost no movement for both teams. And Philadelphia has started running away with No. 1 honors.

This is a big week for our rankings – the No. 1 and 2 teams will battle, as will 3 and 4. The biggest disparity in a matchup this weekend is between Cleveland and Portland, and the first game between those two teams went to overtime. Enjoy the games and hopefully we’ll shake things up next week!

AFL Power Rankings, Week 10

This season, I’ve still been keeping track of weighted success rates. These numbers only take into account offensive and defensive prowess based on scoring success rates. Drives where there isn’t enough time to score at the end of a half, drives where the winning team just kills the clock, etc. don’t count against totals. Neither do special teams, because the nature of bar balls, onside kicks, etc. seem to be more luck than skill.

Weighted Offense:

  1. Philadelphia, 80% scores
  2. Orlando, 79%
  3. Arizona, 78%
  4. Jacksonville, 75%
  5. Cleveland, 74%
  6. Los Angeles, 67%
  7. Tampa Bay, 54%
  8. Portland, 53%

Weighted Defense:

  1. Philadelphia, 38% stops
  2. Los Angeles, 33%
  3. Arizona, 32%
  4. Jacksonville, 30%
  5. Tampa Bay, 30%
  6. Cleveland, 26%
  7. Portland, 26%
  8. Orlando, 22%

Orlando’s best week was Week 1, which means it gets the least weight in this week’s ratings; Portland’s best week by far was this week. Those last two are likely to change, but the current positioning underscores how badly Orlando’s defense has struggled to get off the field in recent weeks.

The total scores, then, provide a general framework for my Week 10 Power Rankings.

  1. Philadelphia, 1.19
  2. Arizona, 1.10
  3. Orlando, 1.02
  4. Jacksonville, 1.05
  5. Cleveland, 1.00
  6. Los Angeles, 1.00
  7. Tampa Bay, 0.84
  8. Portland, 0.79

I put Orlando ahead of Jacksonville based on the strength of their superior special teams play, which has produced eight touchdowns to Jacksonville’s one (although that one was produced by new acquisition Reggie Gray, who scored this week). They’ve also done a better job of winning games, which is what the sport is all about. Cleveland wins the tiebreaker over Los Angeles on the strength of their seven defensive touchdowns to Los Angeles’ three.

 

On ArenaFan: Celebrating Brooks’ season; Weighted Power Rankings

I have a couple articles up on ArenaFan this week – First off is coverage of Duane Brooks, who has been the story for the Thunder in recent weeks as he moves toward the record books as having the best season for a kick returner in league history.

The second may not be so well-received by Thunder fans, as it incorporates a weighted “what have you done for me lately” system that sees Portland fall to 12th in the league in offensive/defensive success rate.

Check back later this week for a game preview and the Game Day poster! After this week, the blog will gradually be shifting focuses as I go up to Spokane for Hoopfest and then relocate to Irving, TX to begin work at North Lake College.